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Cold weather planning met office

Cold Weather Alert Planning Advice


Forecast Issued on Friday, 05 February 2021 at 09:02

Forecast for Friday 05 February 2021 to Tuesday 09 February 2021

General Situation: Low pressure over Ireland on Friday will move away southwards, allowing easterly or northeasterly winds to develop over the whole of England by the end of Saturday. This means that initially there will be slightly milder air over much of England, but this will soon be replaced by cold air from Scandinavia. By the end of the weekend the whole country will be in cold air, continuing into the early part of next week. Snow is expected to develop, mainly in eastern areas, through the weekend. Snow showers in eastern areas will continue into next week. Cold weather alerts for this period are expected.

 

Forecast for Wednesday 10 February 2021 to Friday 19 February 2021

General Situation: The cold easterly winds will continue into the early part of this period with further snow showers, again mainly in eastern areas. During Thursday and Friday confidence becomes low, as milder air will try to move into southern and southwestern areas. At this stage it is difficult to say how far northeast the milder air might reach, but further significant snow on the boundary between the cold and milder air is possible. The milder air may reach most parts through the weekend of 13-14 February, but northeastern areas may stay in the cold air. Cold weather alerts are likely, at least in the early part of this period.

 


Forecast for Saturday 20 February 2021 to Saturday 06 March 2021

General Situation: After a slightly milder and wetter period mid-month, a return to colder and drier conditions is most likely for this period. There is a risk of significant snow on the boundary of the mild and cold air, most likely in eastern areas. There is a higher than usual likelihood of cold weather alerts for the lead time during this period.

 

 

Region

% Risk Day 1 to 5

% Risk Day 6 to 15

% Risk Day 16 to 30

Trigger criteria for each Region

NE England

90

80

50

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

NW England

90

80

40

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

Yorks & Humber

90

80

50

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

West Midlands

90

80

40

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

East Midlands

90

80

40

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

East of England

90

80

50

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

SE England

90

80

40

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

London

90

80

40

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

SW England

90

70

30

Average temp of 2C or less for at least 48 hours, heavy snow or widespread ice.

Issued by: Duty Meteorologist, Tel: 0370 900 0100 (C) Crown Copyright 2021. All Rights Reserved


 

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